M.Sc., Cracow Polytechnic, Poland, 1970Ph.D., University of Arizona, 1978

"Education is a launchpad to a rewarding life. Research demands passion and endurance. The challenge for me as an academician is to turn learners into thinkers. For it is the creative element that uplifts the individual and benefits mankind."

Sir Roman Krzysztofowicz, "Who's Who in America"

Dr. Krzysztofowicz joined the U.Va. faculty in 1982, after he had held faculty posts at the University of Arizona and MIT. He develops theories and models for probabilistic forecasting and optimal decision making under uncertainty.

His Bayesian Forecast-Decision Theory offers a unified framework for comprehensive/multidisciplinary design and analysis of probabilistic forecast systems coupled with optimal decision systems. It has been applied to assorted problems in hydrology, meteorology, water resources, agriculture, education, and engineering.

A scholar with expertise in multiple disciplines, Dr. Krzysztofowicz authored/coauthored over 120 archival articles published in some 26 journals, 15 books, 4 encyclopedias; and over 60 other papers. He was editor-in-chief of the Journal of Hydrology (1996–2007), and associate editor of the Journal of Applied Meteorology, Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics, and SERRA (Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment).

A frequent plenary speaker at international conferences, Dr. Krzysztofowicz also has lectured at NATO Advanced Study Institutes, short courses at George Washington University, training courses for senior forecasters of the National Weather Service; has served as expert on forecasting to the World Meteorological Organization, and a scientist at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology. He is the Eminent Engineer of Tau Beta Pi, a recipient of 5 Departmental Teaching Awards, a recipient of the Witold Wierzbicki Award in structural mechanics, a recipient of the Presidential Young Investigator Award, and a biographee in Marquis "Who's Who in America", "Who's Who in the South and Southwest", "Who's Who in Science and Engineering", "Who's Who in Finance and Business", and "Who's Who in the World" [Marquis Who's Who Website:].

Research Interests

  • Bayesian Forecast-Decision Theory
  • Judgmental, Probabilistic, and Ensemble Forecasting
  • Forecast Combining, Verification, Economic Value
  • Stochastic Control with Forecasts
  • Quantification of Uncertainty in Deterministic Model Outputs
  • Multivariate Probability Distributions, Copulas
  • Probability, Preference, and Decision Theories
  • Cognitive Psychology, Behavioral Decision Theory
  • Warning-Response Systems, Natural Hazards
  • Hydrology, Meteorology, Water Resources

Selected Publications

  • Stochastic Models of Severe Weather Watches and Warnings: Transition Probabilities, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 31(4), 915–933, 2017. Myers, C.M. and Krzysztofowicz, R.
  • Ensemble Bayesian Forecasting System, Part 1: Theory and Algorithms, Journal of Hydrology, 524, 789−802, 2015. Herr, H.D. and Krzysztofowicz, R.
  • Decision Criteria, Data Fusion, and Prediction Calibration: A Bayesian Approach, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 55(6), 1033–1050, 2010. Krzysztofowicz, R.
  • Probabilistic Forecasts From the National Digital Forecast Database, Weather and Forecasting, 23(2), 270–289, 2008. Krzysztofowicz, R. and Evans, W.B.
  • Bayesian Theory of Probabilistic Forecasting via Deterministic Hydrologic Model, Water Resources Research, 35(9), 2739–2750, 1999. Krzysztofowicz, R.
  • Point-to-Area Rescaling of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts, Journal of Applied Meteorology, 38(6), 786−796, 1999. Krzysztofowicz, R.
  • Probabilistic Hydrometeorological Forecasts: Toward a New Era in Operational Forecasting, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 79(2), 243−251, 1998. Krzysztofowicz, R.
  • Stochastic Bifurcation Processes and Distributions of Fractions, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88(421), 345−354, 1993. Krzysztofowicz, R. and Reese, S.
  • Fusion of Detection Probabilities and Comparison of Multisensor Systems, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, 20(3), 665−677, 1990. Krzysztofowicz, R. and Long, D.
  • To Protect or Not to Protect: Bayes Decisions With Forecasts, European Journal of Operational Research, 44(3), 319−330, 1990. Krzysztofowicz, R. and Long, D.
  • Estimation of Cardinal Utility Based on a Nonlinear Theory, Annals of Operations Research, 19, 181−204, 1989. Krzysztofowicz, R. and Koch, J.B.
  • Markovian Forecast Processes, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 82(397), 31−37, 1987. Krzysztofowicz, R.
  • Markov Stopping Model for Setting a Target Based on Sequential Forecasts, Large Scale Systems, 10(1), 39−56, 1986. Krzysztofowicz, R.
  • Strength of Preference and Risk Attitude in Utility Measurement, Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 31, 88−113, 1983. Krzysztofowicz, R.