Publications

Publications

  1. W. Qi, J. M. Lobo, G. Yan, R. Ghenbot, K. G. Sands, T. L. Krupski, S. H. Culp, and D. F. Otero-Leon (2026). Estimating Chronic Kidney Disease Stage Transitions from Irregular Electronic Health Record Data Using an Expectation–Maximization Framework. Medical Decision Making Policy & Practice. 2026;11(2).
  2. D. F. Otero-Leon, M. S. Lavieri, B. T. Denton, J. Sussman, and R. A. Hayward (2026). Who Goes Next? Optimizing the Allocation of Adherence-Improving Interventions. IISE Transactions in Healthcare Systems Engineering, 1–16.
  3. D. F. Otero-Leon, H. Lee, H. Dong, E. Stringfellow, and M. S. Jalali (2025). Drug involvement variations in overdose death spikes: county-level analysis in Massachusetts. BMJ Public Health. 2025;3:e002293
  4. H. Lee, D. F. Otero-Leon, H. Dong, E. Stringfellow, and M. S. Jalali (2024). Uncovering Patterns in Overdose Deaths: An Analysis of Spike Identification in Fatal Drug Overdose Data in Massachusetts, 2017-2023. Public Health Reports 141 (1), 71-76. 
  5. D. F. Otero-Leon, M. S. Lavieri, B. T. Denton, J. Sussman, and R. A. Hayward (2022). Monitoring policy in the context of preventive treatment of cardiovascular disease. Health Care Management Science 26(1), 93–116
  6. D. F. Otero, M. Escallon, C. Lopez, and R. Akhavan-Tabatabaei (2019). Optimal timing of airline promotions under dilution. European Journal of Operational Research 277(3), 981–995.
  7. D. F. Otero and R. Akhavan-Tabatabaei (2015). A stochastic dynamic pricing model for the multiclass problems in the airline industry. European Journal of Operational Research 242(1), 188–200.

  1. W. Qi, G. Lawrence, D. F. Otero-Leon, J. Lobo, and S. Culp (2026). Comparative Evaluation of International Clinical Guidelines For Small Renal Mass Management: A Patient-Level Microsimulation Under Uncertainty. 2026 Winter Simulation Conference, Glasgow, Scotland. (Accepted)
  2. M. E. Gunn, M. C. Marcellin, M. C. Gunn, D. Loose, E. Jehu, F. Popoola, K. R. Jackson, D. F. Otero-Leon, I. Linkov, J. H. Lambert (2026). Network Systems Analysis and Value-Focused Decision-Making for Regional Logistics. 2026 12th International Conference on Control, Decision and Information Technologies (CoDIT), Bari, Italy. (Accepted)
  3. M. deLadurantaye, E. Williamson, M. Dertke, M. Craig, J. Singer, N. Kusic, C. Lorca, R. Riggs, and D. F. Otero-Leon (2026). Beyond the Clock: Improving Elective Surgical Duration Predictions with Machine Learning. 2026 IEEE Symposium on Systems and Information Engineering Design, SIEDS, Charlottesville, VA, USA, pp. 1-6.
  4. D. F. Otero-Leon, W. Li, M. S. Lavieri, B. T. Denton, J. Sussman, and R. A. Hayward (2021). Using longitudinal health records to simulate the impact of national treatment guidelines for cardiovascular disease. 2021 Winter Simulation Conference, Phoenix, AZ, USA, pp. 1–12.

  1. V. Milla-Angeles and D.F. Otero-Leon (2026). From Current-Wave to Longitudinal Risk Prediction: A Leakage-Aware Stacked Ensemble Framework for Adolescent Substance Use Using the ABCD Study. MedRxiv. Preprint
  2. M. Harwood, D. F. Otero-Leon, E. J. Stringfellow, A. Deutsch, M. Jalali, and H. Dong (2025). Family dynamics and environmental factors influencing progression from alcohol experimentation to initiation in youth: Evidence from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study. MedRXiv. Preprint
  3. D. F. Otero-Leon, V. Milla-Angeles, M. Harwood,  E. J. Stringfellow, A. Deutsch, M. Jalali, and H. Dong (2026). Early adolescent substance use patterns and associated factors: A longitudinal analysis of the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study. MedRxiv. Preprint.
  4. C. Lorca, R. Riggs, and D.F. Otero-Leon (2026). An End-to-End Transformer-based Neural Solver for Non-Convex Optimization Assignment Problems. Under Review. 
  5. C. Lorca, R. Riggs, T. Shin, and D.F. Otero-Leon (2026). Uncertainty-Aware Operating Room Scheduling. Working Paper. 
  6. W. Qi, G. Lawrence, J. Lobo, and D.F. Otero-Leon (2026). Optimizing Treatment Strategies for Small Renal Masses
    Using a Markov Decision Process Framework. Working Paper.
  7. G. Lawrence, H. Golino, and D. F. Otero-Leon (2026). The Double Entropy Fit Index (DEFI): An Information-Theoretic Approach to Dimensionality Reduction and Clustering. Working Paper.
  8. A. L. Claypool, C. M. Dugdale, L.-G. Bekker, M. Machoko, A. M. Neilan, D. F. Otero-Leon, P. P. Pei, S. C. Resch, J. A. Scott, F. Shebl, P. Shrestha, R. Wood, M. S. Jalali, and K. A. Freedberg (2026). Optimizing HIV resource allocation in South Africa: Balancing HIV testing, antiretroviral therapy, and pre-exposure prophylaxis to reduce HIV incidence. Working Paper.

Questions? Comments?

Daniel Otero-León

Assistant Professor, Department of Systems and Information Engineering Courtesy Appointment, Department of Public Health Sciences

His research develops data-driven decision models for disease prevention, cancer management, and healthcare logistics to improve patient outcomes and health system efficiency.
Google Scholar Otero Stochastic Systems Lab
Email [email protected]